Hard struggling with myself

[Snopyman]

I suffered the same problem many, many times over. The only 2 long-term options in my view, are:

1) Stop trading altogether. Find something else less costly to focus on. Learn another language perhaps?

2) Make EVERY trade a fill or kill with 'take SP' status. This way, win or lose, red or green you're taking the SP. Just make sure it's at least £10 liability for lays and £1 for backs to be sure the SP bet is matched.

Good luck.

CS

Thanks for the tips, I'm trading with money that I'm totally okay if I loose and no stress from that side.

Somehow I feel like I've learned too much about this to give up now

[Snopyman]

Trade smthng without inplay, like greyhounds markets.

To be honest, I've never tried it, I'll try, thanks for the advice!

[ShaunWhite]

, do you think that when I'm in the red before the start, I shouldn't hedge the position all the way?

You should fully hedge at this stage whatever your position.

[decomez6]

.If there's any downside it's because people are letting -EV bets (red at SP) run but not the +EV bets (green at SP).

spot on
-ev {..... (SP)0 .....}+ev ... downside /upside = same side of the SP coin.

one should only go in play if the staking is adjusted accordingly .leveling up the loosing and the winning side .
-I personally adjust my staking to tick size OR by liability depending on my end goal.

-ev bets that fail to beat sp can easily turn +ev (short term ) during In-play but eventually settle down to -ev (longterm ).
Especially in a Long distance high quality competitive race , very likely to get a better price above SP

[greety]

I posted on here a while ago, with exactly the same problem
It seems strange to have a lot of small gains and a massive loss, out of the blue. I don't know what you are doing or what your stakes are.
I would either force yourself to take SP or perhaps have just enough in your bank each day so you cannot afford to have massive liabilities. Say 20 pounds if you are only using small stakes.
Hope this helps.

[ShaunWhite]

or perhaps have just enough in your bank each day so you cannot afford to have massive liabilities.

That's a good one, endless "let's forget that happened" top ups are the issue, but a day isn't a strict enough limit. I remember saying that I'd have £100 a week and when it's gone it's gone.... No more trading till next Monday. The only thing that stops you doing something is the consequences, so if you're disciplined about spending limits then you don't fck about on a Tuesday if you know a mistake means you're looking at a 5 day enforced break.

[Snopyman]

Thank you all for the advice and suggestions, they mean a lot to me.

The first big goal is to work on my trading psychology.

I will try to implement everything and make new trading and staking plan , also i will work on money managment and most important- my head!!

I will update you if there is any progress after a certain amount of time or if I give up !!!

Cheers

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[napshnap]

or perhaps have just enough in your bank each day so you cannot afford to have massive liabilities.

That's a good one, endless "let's forget that happened" top ups are the issue, but a day isn't a strict enough limit. I remember saying that I'd have £100 a week and when it's gone it's gone.... No more trading till next Monday. The only thing that stops you doing something is the consequences, so if you're disciplined about spending limits then you don't fck about on a Tuesday if you know a mistake means you're looking at a 5 day enforced break.

I was gonna suggest (for real) pinch himself really badly if he breaks his rules, but this 5 day self exclusion is a real jesuit torture!))

[ShaunWhite]

I was gonna suggest (for real) pinch himself really badly if he breaks his rules, but this 5 day self exclusion is a real jesuit torture!))

I've heard everything from jabbing yourself with a pencil to eating something you don't like. But doing something you don't like is nothing compared to the pain of not being allowed to do something you do like. Getting grounded is much more effective than a thick ear and being sent out to do it again.

[jimibt]

Thank you all for the advice and suggestions, they mean a lot to me.

The first big goal is to work on my trading psychology.

I will try to implement everything and make new trading and staking plan , also i will work on money managment and most important- my head!!

I will update you if there is any progress after a certain amount of time or if I give up !!!

Cheers

Capture.PNG

i think you're referring to Sisyphus (and no derek, it's not an STD!!)): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sisyphus

[ShaunWhite]

I will update you if there is any progress after a certain amount of time or if I give up !!!

Just be realistic, I don't know how long you've been doing it but it could easily be a couple of years. It's a competitive field and there's a lot of people working hard for a slice of the pie.

[lotora]

I suffered the same problem many, many times over. The only 2 long-term options in my view, are:

3. Understand what being red or green actually means when you do, or don't, have your sp bet. Bsp is widely known to be as close to 0ev as you'll get so how does betting (or not) at bsp affect your PL?

Just FYI skier, people making good money aren't always hedging.

I never hedge unless there is a +ev reason to do so. Better for long term profitability. Better for Premium Charge management too.

Since I am able to beat Bsp long term I have now decided to stop hedging all my pre-race bets. Feels good!

[jamesedwards]

3. Understand what being red or green actually means when you do, or don't, have your sp bet. Bsp is widely known to be as close to 0ev as you'll get so how does betting (or not) at bsp affect your PL?

Just FYI skier, people making good money aren't always hedging.

I never hedge unless there is a +ev reason to do so. Better for long term profitability. Better for Premium Charge management too.

Since I am able to beat Bsp long term I have now decided to stop hedging all my pre-race bets. Feels good!

Good move for long term profitability. Goes without saying you need to be mentally and financially prepared for wild swings in short term profitability and carry a big enough bank to cover.

[ShaunWhite]

Good move for long term profitability. Goes without saying you need to be mentally and financially prepared for wild swings in short term profitability and carry a big enough bank to cover.

... and don't judge your short term results by the cash. Measure it vs bsp (like assuming you'd hedged) and if that's up the cash will take care of itself. The same measure also helps you to stop thinking you're a hero if the cash is ahead of the BSP benchmark. Cash is vanity and the benchmark is sanity.

... but that's just pre-race where there's a benchmark, in-running takes more experience to know where you stand. That's James's playpen not mine.

[lotora]

Thank you both for excellent answers! Another question, I understand that BSP is widely known to be as close to 0ev as you'll get, but I suppose there are also a certain number of people who makes money from for simply laying, or backing BSP (without hedging), when certain criteria are met, estimating BSP "as too good", right?