I don't say place small bets on them; I say that this is a system that I test it virtually at the moment so I do not offer these selections to you. If you want to place bets on these I am not responsible for that.
Renk's Win Lay System
thanks a lot for this feedbacks. I'll be considering it in this aspect.wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Sun Jan 09, 2022 9:41 amOne experience I had "back in the day" was that I used to try and Lay bigger priced horses by setting up a bot to automate the process and run a Lay accumulator on 10 selections a day. (In essence backing the field 10 x 1.10 or 1.05 in a row)
One winning 10 Lay acca at 1.10 = 2.59. (although commission back then, at 5%, at each winning stage, made this lower)
One winning 10 Lay acca at 1.05 = 1.62.
The bot was set up to stop for the day at a losing bet.
I believed that with good money management, (1% of the bank) and a good lay selection method I could win consistently. I spent a while paper trading and tweaking the "strategy" and got it to the stage I had confidence in running it live. It's also important to remember, when laying on the exchange, you're potentially laying over the odds by 15%+ each time.
The live result was, 7 losing days in a row. (-7% of whole bank). When I looked as each winner that stopped the bot, I spotted something else I hadn't taken into account. This actually helped me look more at the area of value selections and how the market moves under certain conditions.
That was my experience, the OP may go 100+ in a row and beyond.
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- Posts: 1084
- Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am
was messing about with backing 90% to 95% of book yesterday - lost three in a row...
All of my today's lay selections won!Renk wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 10:39 pmHello everyone; I've just done my homework. So here 5 lay selections for tomorrow's Southwell Card. Odds are currently on live and I picked horses over those odds. Maybe you can make a pre-trade on laying these selections and then tomorrow you can cashing out. Especially I think that Khilwafy and Heat and Dust will be both huge drifters tomorrow in the market. Anyway here are my tomorrow selections.
Southwell Race 1-Khifwafy-11
7lb claimer who has never won a single race; trainer is out of form. Horse is significantly up in trip but on pedigree I don’t think it will handle this trip.
Southwell Race 2-Velma-15
Trainer and jockey both of them are out of form. Upper grade than last time out. First time out over course and course and distance.
Southwell Race 3-Fliss Floss-20
0/2 over this trip. Not a strong type. Out of form. Trainer and Jockey both are out of form too. No chance.
Southwell Race 5-Hobsons Bay-20
5lb claimer who is out of from, not a good rider. Horse carries top weight. On pedigree it did not looks a middle distance horse. Easy to look elsewhere.
Southwell Race 7-Heat and Dust-10
0 wins out of 12 runs. Significantly up in trip and first time cheekpieces but on pedigree there is no reason about this trip. It looks like an middle distance horse. L. Morris has 3 winners out of 64 rides in last 14 days. Easy to lay.
We are 13/13 at the moment and there is 12 to go. I shared 5 more and hopefully it is going to be 7 to go after these selections won.
Good luck everyone. As I said couple of times this is a system that is under-development. I test it virtually currently. Be careful about my selections.
Here is a link of google drive excel. You can follow on it if you want.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Cx/pubhtml
It is 18/18 and we are in profit +180 at the moment. This is what I was planning to achieve. Now there is 7 to go till the end of the first rally. Let's see what's gonna happen tomorrow. Maybe we can finish first rally tomorrow, who knows. But patience is the key! No need to hurry.
here is the link if you want to follow; https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Cx/pubhtml
- Crazyskier
- Posts: 1182
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
I watch this thread with interest. I'd love to see you complete the first 'rally'. Good luck.
CS
CS
So would I, as you can probably tell from my posts.Crazyskier wrote: ↑Sun Jan 09, 2022 5:23 pmI watch this thread with interest. I'd love to see you complete the first 'rally'. Good luck.
CS
thank you so much friend.Crazyskier wrote: ↑Sun Jan 09, 2022 5:23 pmI watch this thread with interest. I'd love to see you complete the first 'rally'. Good luck.
CS
Hi guys sorry im late was stuck in traffic and had to bring enough popcorn for everyone since last time I think we completely ran out after 35 pagesDerek27 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 09, 2022 5:27 pmSo would I, as you can probably tell from my posts.Crazyskier wrote: ↑Sun Jan 09, 2022 5:23 pmI watch this thread with interest. I'd love to see you complete the first 'rally'. Good luck.
CS
I already posted him a link to that thread but I doubt he's read it. This thread is pretty much the same but on a lesser scale. At least he admits to paper trading, unlike kahin.Kai wrote: ↑Sun Jan 09, 2022 5:55 pmHi guys sorry im late was stuck in traffic and had to bring enough popcorn for everyone since last time I think we completely ran out after 35 pagesDerek27 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 09, 2022 5:27 pmSo would I, as you can probably tell from my posts.Crazyskier wrote: ↑Sun Jan 09, 2022 5:23 pmI watch this thread with interest. I'd love to see you complete the first 'rally'. Good luck.
CS
Well done Renk. I'd say you're got the same level of expertise as this guy, who also boasts a 100% record.Renk wrote: ↑Sun Jan 09, 2022 5:18 pmAll of my today's lay selections won!Renk wrote: ↑Sat Jan 08, 2022 10:39 pmHello everyone; I've just done my homework. So here 5 lay selections for tomorrow's Southwell Card. Odds are currently on live and I picked horses over those odds. Maybe you can make a pre-trade on laying these selections and then tomorrow you can cashing out. Especially I think that Khilwafy and Heat and Dust will be both huge drifters tomorrow in the market. Anyway here are my tomorrow selections.
Southwell Race 1-Khifwafy-11
7lb claimer who has never won a single race; trainer is out of form. Horse is significantly up in trip but on pedigree I don’t think it will handle this trip.
Southwell Race 2-Velma-15
Trainer and jockey both of them are out of form. Upper grade than last time out. First time out over course and course and distance.
Southwell Race 3-Fliss Floss-20
0/2 over this trip. Not a strong type. Out of form. Trainer and Jockey both are out of form too. No chance.
Southwell Race 5-Hobsons Bay-20
5lb claimer who is out of from, not a good rider. Horse carries top weight. On pedigree it did not looks a middle distance horse. Easy to look elsewhere.
Southwell Race 7-Heat and Dust-10
0 wins out of 12 runs. Significantly up in trip and first time cheekpieces but on pedigree there is no reason about this trip. It looks like an middle distance horse. L. Morris has 3 winners out of 64 rides in last 14 days. Easy to lay.
We are 13/13 at the moment and there is 12 to go. I shared 5 more and hopefully it is going to be 7 to go after these selections won.
Good luck everyone. As I said couple of times this is a system that is under-development. I test it virtually currently. Be careful about my selections.
Here is a link of google drive excel. You can follow on it if you want.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Cx/pubhtml
It is 18/18 and we are in profit +180 at the moment. This is what I was planning to achieve. Now there is 7 to go till the end of the first rally. Let's see what's gonna happen tomorrow. Maybe we can finish first rally tomorrow, who knows. But patience is the key! No need to hurry.
here is the link if you want to follow; https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Cx/pubhtml
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=19465
Have you considered backing outsiders instead? There can be value in this whether you are trading or punting, especially if you're doing your homework like you say you are. High strikerate systems are a classic bait for newcomers but they are not needed in order to profit.
Why would you call it a trading system if you're only going to place straight lay bets, unless you are managing the lay position inplay or something?
Even if you find some value is this really how you want to trade/bet on this market? Hoping you don't get an unlucky 2-3 winners that wipe it all out. Virtual stakes imply you may not be too comfortable with the concept of so much potential variance. Also, if this is an attempt to avoid losers and losses then it will definitely fail, because losses are very much a key part of profitable trading and betting.
Just a few key questions that come to mind.